Ukraine will remain in the TOP-10 world grain producers in 2022/23 MY


Thus, according to USDA estimates, in 2021/22 MY, the country's share in the world wheat crop was 4%, barley – 7% and corn – 3%. According to USDA forecasts in May, in the 2022/23 season, Ukraine will also enter the TOP-10 world producers of the main grain crops, but its share in total production may decrease from 4% to 2%, which will primarily be due to a reduction in the acreage under grain crops due to the exclusion of a full-fledged sowing campaign in the territories where active hostilities take place. According to the latest forecasts by APK-Inform analysts, in 2022/23 MY, the grain crop harvest is projected at 48.3 million tons, which is 44% less than the current season.

Ukraine plays an important role both in world production of wheat, corn and barley and in their export.

Thus, the gross harvest of wheat is expected to decrease in relation to the 2021/22 season by 47%, to 17.1 million tons, barley – by 47%, to 5.0 million tons, and corn – by 40%, to 25.2 million tons. At the same time, wheat exports are estimated at 12.3 million tons (-35% compared to the forecast for 2021/22 MY), barley – at 1.2 million tons (-79%) and corn – at 25.7 million tons (+22%) due to high transitional balances at the end of 2021/22 MY against the background of the lack of conditions for the full realization of its export potential.


The main task of the Ukrainian government

The main task of the Ukrainian government for the coming years is to increase agricultural production, improve the quality and efficiency of agricultural production, and reduce dependence on food imports. To achieve these goals, the government needs to strengthen the application and implementation of modern methods of agricultural production and technological development, as well as attract private capital to implement reforms and introduce new technologies.

The most important task for the agricultural sector of Ukraine will be the transition from the statist approach to the introduction of a market approach based on the principles of private property, competition and efficiency. To do this, the government needs to step up efforts to simplify current regulatory and tax policies to make them easier to apply. First of all, the government needs to carry out the necessary reforms to reduce the burden on the private sector by simplifying administrative procedures and procedures for obtaining licenses, placing assets and licenses, and eliminating bureaucratic barriers to entering the market.


Conclusions

The government needs to improve the logistical and sanitary conditions in which agriculture is carried out and make sure they meet EU standards. The government also needs to address the problem of the uneven development of the agricultural sector and increase the area under permanent crops, especially wheat, by about 50% in the next five to six years. State-developed programs aimed at encouraging farmers to grow certain types of crops.


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