The war in Ukraine has been going on for four months now. Putin runs the war manually like a general, and no one knows what his next decision will be. Apparently, everyday combat missions are being solved. No serious war strategy exists, as military experts from around the world comment on the situation. It is not difficult to guess that his paranoia escalated and the dictator stopped trusting anyone from his entourage.
This is a consequence of the catastrophic failure, as a result of the so-called special operation, where the main strategy was a blitzkrieg with the capture of Kyiv and the overthrow of the Ukrainian government, and the further surrender of all of Ukraine. As a result, Ukraine would have to be forcibly annexed to the Russian Federation, and Putin's dream of collecting "Russian lands" would become a reality. Thus, he would have immortalized himself in history and would have stood on the same pedestal with Peter the Great or with his other idol – Stalin.
Putin was not particularly worried about what would happen to the country, he was interested in his own messianism, the desire to go down in history in any way and become great. His childhood complexes played here, and the lack of parental love, which led to emotional rigidity and alienation with a power complex, and further work in the KGB and a special psychotype, which I wrote about in my previous article inherent in almost all dictators, and a long stay in power, with the loss of a critical perception of reality and one and a half years of isolation due to Covid-19 and much more.
But everything went wrong, the Ukrainians met the Russian army with a high level of resistance and outright hatred as occupying troops, and not as “rescuers”, as it seemed to Putin before the start of the war.
Zelenskyy and his government did not flee Kyiv, but instead led the Ukrainian resistance. We see a lot of information in the media on the topic that the Russian special services, specifically the fifth department of the FSB responsible for the Ukrainian direction, gave Putin deliberately false information, framed and humiliated Putin, and billions of dollars were spent on agitation of the so-called “Russian World” and pro-Russian parties in Ukraine were largely stolen by both the former and the latter. All information about the state of affairs in Ukraine, including the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, was distorted. Putin was given false information that a putsch could be organized within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Zelenskyy did not have public support within the country. Thus, the first stage of the war called “Special Operation” was failed, Russian troops retreated from Kyiv with huge losses and the second stage of the war began in the east and south of the country.
Most of all, the Russian dictator is afraid of public humiliation both inside his country and abroad, and he had to publicly humiliate himself several times.
After the start of the war, he turned to the Ukrainian military with a proposal to stop following the commands of the Zelenskyy and Ukrainian governments and negotiate with him, but the answer was in the spirit of the well-known meme “Russian ship, fuck you”. The FSB promised Putin that the Ukrainian military were demotivated and were not going to fight the Russian army, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine were more than motivated to drive the occupiers from the territory of Ukraine back to Russia. The next major humiliation was the defeat of Russian troops near Kyiv. It is unlikely that Putin has moderated his appetite for the capture of the whole of Ukraine, he was furious at the strategic failure and this time decided to seize Ukraine in pieces and independently plan and control the whole process by turning into a general.
Hitler behaved in a similar way at the end of the war after major losses, independently building defense and offensive tactics, which caused strong dissatisfaction with the German General Staff. After the occupation of Ukrainian territory, the Russian dictator instructed to appoint local authorities and issue Russian passports to local residents. Sometime later, hold a pseudo-referendum so that the occupation and annexation look within the supposedly democracy and legitimacy, so that it is possible to operate in the UN with the right to self-determination of peoples or something else in a similar spirit in the name of hiding their criminal activities. This scenario is likely to fail as well. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive Western weapons in time, the Russian troops will be thrown back with heavy losses back to positions before February 24th.
Putin is nervous and often changes army commanders, which demotivates the Russian army.
During the war, the frequent change of the highest military command shows the failures of the army. The death toll in the Russian army exceeds thirty thousand personnel, and this is a huge figure for an army that claims to be second in the world. The fighting spirit of the Ukrainian army, on the contrary, is several times higher than the fighting spirit of the Russian military, and in fact the moral and psychological component plays a huge role in the confrontation with the enemy, along with the military-technical potential.
In addition, volunteers and local residents help the Ukrainian army, and this factor also makes a great contribution to the victory not only of Ukraine, but of the entire civilized world. As for the reaction of the world community to Putin's war crimes, Biden openly called the Russian dictator a bloodthirsty murderer and criminal. In general, Western civilization has consolidated against the Kremlin dictator and will do everything to prevent Putin from winning this unfair war against Ukraine and democracy.
This is not the first time the dictator has threatened the West with a nuclear war and is not ready to give in, regardless of sanctions and the likelihood of the collapse of his own state. Biden, Johnson and even Xi Jinping have warned Putin about using nuclear weapons. But Putin pretends to be crazy and does not cease from time to time to remind that he will launch a nuclear strike on Western countries if he intervenes in the war on the side of Ukraine.
It is obvious that the Russian dictator is banking on the world leaders' fear of a nuclear war to achieve his goals not only in Ukraine, but also in Europe. But this does not mean at all that he is capable of taking such a step. Judging by his behavior, he is very afraid of death and does not at all look like either a courageous samurai or a cold-blooded kamikaze.
Putin is rather a prudent blackmailer, manipulating the feelings and self-preservation instinct of adequate people who value both their lives and the lives of their loved ones and their people. It can be assumed that in passion and rage he will give such an order, but even this scenario is unlikely. Moreover, he will not be able to single-handedly press the nuclear button, this is not such a simple procedure and more than one person is involved in it.
A little pre-history for a chronology of events to understand how fanatically Putin is fixated on the idea of taking over Ukraine and recreating a Russian empire within the borders of the former USSR.
First of all, this is the accession of Ukraine and Belarus to Russia, as it turned out at any cost, up to the genocide of Ukrainians who offered heroic resistance to the Russian horde. After coming to power in 2000 instead of President Yeltsin, under whom there were certain freedoms and the beginnings of democracy in Russia, Putin gradually began to destroy civil society within Russia itself during the first ten years of his rule. Many TV shows were shut down, and relatively independent TV channels and media were placed under surveillance and heavily censored.
Thus, the country began to return to autocracy and imperial ambitions, curtailing all democratic processes. Yes, this did not happen overnight, but the course towards dictatorship was taken immediately. There were murders of journalists and opposition leaders, and gradually Russia began to turn into a disenfranchised mass with a slave psychology controlled by special services and corrupt officials, loyal to the leader, as in any mafia structure.
Over the seventy years of the existence of the USSR, the Russians were accustomed to a rigid vertical of power and lack of rights. Moreover, even before the formation of the USSR, until the end of the 19th century, Russia was a semi-feudal country with serfdom. That is, the Russians did not have at least some democratic experience of life at all. They liked order and rigid autocratic power more than the rights, freedoms and democratic values of Western civilization.
It was an Asian model of power prone to dictatorship and violence. That is why millions of Russians calmly accepted the curtailment of democratic institutions in Russia. Putin has already decided on Russia's strategy for the coming years. Restore the power and influence of the collapsed USSR and become the number one state competing with the United States and China for world leadership. To begin with, on the platform of the Customs and Eurasian Unions, create a powerful autocratic and militarized country in order to move further towards the countries of Eastern Europe. At the same time, Ukraine, despite the huge corruption and oligarchy, was democratically moving towards European values and Western civilization, and Putin had to stop this process at any cost.
The Kremlin has spent huge sums to bring its henchman Yanukovych to power in order to further integrate Ukraine into allied entities with the Russian Federation. But Yanukovych in 2004 was defeated in the elections by his opponent Yushchenko and, thanks to the Orange Revolution, could not declare his victory. Pro-Western politicians came to power.
The Kremlin has spent huge sums to install its protege, Yanukovych, in order to further integrate Ukraine into allied entities with the Russian Federation. But Yanukovych was defeated in the elections by his opponent Yushchenko in 2004 and, thanks to the Orange Revolution, could not declare his victory. Pro-Western politicians came to power. This was Putin's first major defeat in the Ukrainian direction, and he became obsessed with the idea of revenge on Ukraine and has since begun to prepare for war. Putin's next defeat came in 2014, when Yanukovych fled to Russia after the Maidan victory.
Putin was again furious, but by this time he was already ready for a full-scale war with Ukraine, but chose the format of a hybrid war in order not to receive international sanctions in response to Russian aggression. Allegedly, Russian troops do not take part in the hostilities in Ukraine, and all that happens is a civil war and nothing more. After the annexation of Crimea, the seizure of Donbass began and the desire to create an artificial quasi-formation, with the name Novorossiya. After bloody battles, the Minsk agreements were signed and the war turned into a protracted conflict, now freezing, then unfreezing. Ultimately, Minsk-2 was signed. For the next 8 years, Putin was preparing for the complete takeover of Ukraine in order to complete what he did not do in 2014.
The world is not perfect and not ideal, like every person.
There are developing countries and there are states that have achieved a developed economy, but what should unite this world for common survival is not only international law, but also certain values and meanings based on humanism, be it Christian values or any other based on creation and humanity.
The current situation is a test of the maturity of the entire Western civilization. What will prevail – the economic behavior of European countries that have become dependent on Russian energy resources, or the protection of their own European values? Western sanctions have already hit Putin's regime hard, but the Kremlin is using Gazprom as a gas weapon, dictating its own rules of the game to European states. Every day, Russia earns one billion euros only on the sale of gas to the EU countries, and this money goes to war with Ukraine, and then they would go to the capture of Moldova and the Baltic states.
The calculation of the Russian dictator was simple and logical: for the sake of Ukraine, Europe will not give up its economic interests, for the sake of Ukraine, the world will not want to fall into a food crisis. This is the psychology of a professional criminal, calculated on the fact that the victim will remain on his own with a robber armed to the teeth. The rest is not profitable to get into this conflict because of material or other losses or banal fear.
Any psychopath calculates his steps and risks, and Putin is no exception. But he miscalculated on several fronts at once. Western civilization turned out to be more mature and responsible, and less cynical than the Russian dictator assumed, and Ukrainians are more patriotic and courageous, and ready to die for their country, their home and the freedom of their children, defending their right to Independence and democratic choice.
Putin's completely distorted picture of the world and the paradigm formed by him has nothing to do with objective reality. But all this can be conveyed to him in only one single way – to defeat on all fronts: military, economic and political. A psychopath understands the language of power and can only be broken with his own weapon. A tough repressive apparatus operates in Russia, which at this stage is coping with dissatisfied business and political elites. In Ukraine, Putin is even tougher. It does not just destroy the infrastructure of Ukraine and the population, cities and villages, but purposefully destroys all the cultural values of Ukrainians in order to destroy the historical memory in the occupied territories, replacing all this with the pseudo “Russian world”, which is fascism of the 21st century.
When will the war end?
The war can go on long enough, as Putin will not give up his fanatical goal of taking over all of Ukraine, and the Ukrainians will fight until victory and reclaiming their territories. Therefore, the more assistance is provided to Ukraine, the faster Putin's dictatorial regime will fall and the faster the evil empire will lose. Even if Putin signs the peace agreement now, he will still attack again, as his main goal will not be achieved.
Ukraine found itself on the frontier of defending the entire developed European civilization, defending everything progressive that mankind has managed to build over many centuries. Barbarian hordes have come from East to West more than once, but Western civilization has not only survived, but is the world leader in all respects, and this war will also be lost by the barbarians, and Ukraine will become a worthy member of the progressive world.
The Russian dictator must be defeated, otherwise he will go further into Eastern Europe to conquer other countries that were once in the zone of geopolitical influence of the USSR. Another fixed idea of the Russian messiah is to become the most influential leader of the whole world and decide the fate of other countries and peoples.
Unfortunately, European politicians did not manage to discern Putin's psychological inadequacy in time and built strong economic ties with him, for which they will now have to pay with the fall of their countries' economies due to the approaching energy crisis. But this is less dangerous than the attack of Putin's Russia on the EU and NATO countries.
The war may last six months or a year or several years, nobody knows. Putin can declare victory and stop in the occupied territories or fight further, counting on the exhaustion of Ukraine and the rest of the world being war-weary, but as long as he is in power, the idea of capturing all of Ukraine will not go away, just like the idea of dominating the world by imposing the rules of its game on the West.
Now is a good chance to end the dictator once and for all by strangling his regime economically and defeating his army in Ukraine. We must be aware that the world will not be the same after this war. The Putin regime has chosen the path of imperial chauvinism and is trying to restore the ideas of the Third Reich in the Russian version, while making the rest of the world come to terms with its inadequate ambitions.
Such a challenge to humanity is very dangerous and must be decisively responded to before other European countries flare up in the war. Putin's monster must collapse in Ukraine without the ability to restore its military and economic potential. Some European politicians are trying to negotiate with the Russian Fuhrer. History proves that this path is wrong. Putin is interested in victory at any cost and nothing else.